Political science and German double-major Barbara F. Walter ’86 explores potential internal conflict in the U.S.

Political science and German double-major Barbara F. Walter ’86 explores potential internal conflict in the U.S.

A Nation on the Cusp?

by Sherri Kimmel

If you’re an avid watcher of PBS Newshour, your eyes may be drawn to the books behind Jonathan Capehart’s right shoulder during his Friday-night political analysis with David Brooks. One scarlet title on a pitch-black background stands out. How Civil Wars Start by New York Times-bestselling author Barbara F. Walter ’86 debuted in January, conveniently close to the anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.

That unprecedented event was one of several in the last six years that prompted Walter to turn her gaze toward the possibility of civil war in her own country after a three-decade career spent studying internal conflicts in Syria, Zimbabwe, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka and other nations.

NOTICING WARNING SIGNS

Since 2017, the Rohr Professor of International Relations at the University of California, San Diego, has been part of the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force, analyzing every country but the United States. “We knew what the warning signs were, we knew what countries did to try to avoid civil wars and what they did to make them more likely to break out,” she says.

One red flag is a nation’s transition to an anocracy — in between a democracy and an autocracy. At the end of 2020, she says, the U.S. became a partial democracy for the first time since 1800. An anocracy, she writes, “can easily be pushed toward conflict through a combination of bad governance and increasingly undemocratic measures that further weaken its institutions.”

CONCERNING FACTIONALISM

Another indicator is that “one of our two big political parties is what the task force would consider an ethnic and religious faction,” she says. “The Republican party today is 90% white and predominantly evangelical Christian in a country that is multiethnic and multireligious.”

Despite the warning signs, Walter believes there is still time “to turn this around. We simply have these underlying conditions that emerge in the lead-up to civil war, and once we understand what those risk factors are — like a weak democracy and an ethnic faction — then you hope leaders will emerge who are willing and able to reform that.” What can individuals do to help? Says Walter, “Just vote.”

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them, Barbara F. Walter ’86. (Crown New York, 2022)

Alumni Books

Allison Karbonik Wiest ’02
Roaming Riley: A Baltimore Adventure (Salt Water Media, 2021) Wiest’s first book for young readers, Roaming Riley: A Delmarva Adventure, introduced Riley, an adventurous tabby cat who unexpectedly found himself in Ocean City, Md. This time Riley’s owner takes him to Baltimore to stay with his dog and cat cousins and explore famous attractions around the city.

Richard Lobban ’66
Historical Dictionary of Ancient Nubia (Rowman & Littlefield, 2021) A professor emeritus of anthropology at Rhode Island College and adjunct professor of African security studies at the Naval War College, Lobban chronicles the civilization of ancient Nubia from its birth on the Nile River in the Paleolithic and Mesolithic stone ages through the Medieval Christian era in this newly expanded reference work.

Dr. Jill Garripoli Pedalino ’99
You Are Abundant: A Children’s Guide to Fulfillment Through the Power of Gratitude and Appreciation (self-published, 2022) Pedalino, a pediatrician, aims to empower children to discover fulfillment in this illustrated book for young readers. At a time when children’s mental health has been declared a national emergency by the American Academy of Pediatrics and others, Pedalino’s book offers messages of gratitude, mindfulness and positive thinking.

faculty and staff Books

Muhammad Ali (chaplain for the Muslim community, editor) Mantle of Mercy: Islamic Chaplaincy in North America, (Templeton Press, 2022) Inspired by the need for authentic books on Islamic chaplaincy, this collection of essays explores the lessons and experiences of Muslim chaplains in North America who work in a variety of settings, including hospitals, schools, prisons and the military.

Photo: Debora Cartwright

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